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Sunday, May 29, 2022




I just got part of the translation of the conversation between reporters (and I think a resident) in the minutes before Shireen Abu Akleh was shot. (I'm trying to get more.) The video comes from Middle East Eye, and is unlisted at the moment. 

The transcript is a little muddled, but they are talking about the Palestinian snipers all over Jenin, specifically pointing to the southwest where I have been saying was the source of the gunfire that killed Abu Akleh.

Not just one - multiple snipers. In buildings.


Transcript that I received of the translation:

3:00 There is the sniper, there, there

3:01-3:03 There, that’s the sniper, there…

3:03-3:05 There, those…

3:07-3:08 Listen, there is a sniper in that house, there…

3:12-3:14 There are more than that, there (is one or there are some) above, there (is or are) right in the middle of the house, there…

3:14-3:15 (different person): There is (or are) in the house, and there is (or are)…

3:15 There, on the what’s it’s called…

3:17-3:18 The two that are…

3:18-3:20 yes, yes…

3:19-3:20 On the house that they were on…

3:20-3:25 (Single shot in the background and someone says) Are those the shabab (who shot?)

3:24-3:25 There is a house that is under construction

(Someone answers) There is (or are) here, and there is (or are) here (unclear if he means house/s under construction or snipers)


If the snipers were in (or on top of) buildings, they are the ones who shot Shireen:

* They are known to be in the "Goldilocks zone" of the exact distance away from the camera that would fit the audio of the shockwave and gunshot sounds;
* Their pattern of firing was not at all like the IDF's 
* Their line of sight towards Shireen and the tree is far more credible than the IDF's,
* They are not as disciplined as the IDF would be.


_______________________________

As far as distance is concerned, the original Bellingcat analysis found the gunshot to be  between 177 and 184 meters from the microphone. CNN, quoting the same acoustics expert, says it is between 177 and 197 meters. That's a big change from the same scientist!

I calculated it the best I could. Based on an assumption that the temperature was about 15C and the time gap to the microphone as 309 ms (my calculation of the first gunshot using Audacity):

If we accept the weapons was an M16 shooting at 3150 ft/sec (Wikipedia) that indicates 190 meters distance.
An M4 at 2970 ft/sec (Wikipedia) = 173 meters.
Bellingcat said an M4 is between 2690 and 2840 ft/sec, which indicates a distance of between 147 and 161 meters.

I don't know why my calculations don't match the Bellingcat estimates.

So depending on the weapon and the speed, we are talking a much larger range than previously thought or reported, of between 147 and 190 meters - all still short of the 200 meters the IDF lead vehicle was away from the microphone.

At the low end of my estimate, this building would be a perfect fit for the sniper:














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