A better theory on how Shireen Abu Akleh could have been killed by Palestinians ~ EoZ

Thursday, May 26, 2022

A better theory on how Shireen Abu Akleh could have been killed by Palestinians

On Tuesday night, I wrote up an analysis that explained why I felt that it was likely that the IDF had accidentally killed Shireen Abu Akleh.

I was very bothered all day, because I simply couldn't figure out a plausible way for Palestinian militants in the areas we knew them to be to have fired the shots that was consistent with the audio analysis I had been doing, calculating the distance of the gunfire using the roughly 300 millisecond difference in time between the shockwave from the bullet and the muzzle sound (the bullet is much faster than sound.)

After I wrote it up, I realized something that bothered me far, far more. Two of the gunshots that were heard later on in the video had a similar audio signature, and those were the ones that seemed to be aimed at the reporters trying to retrieve Shireen's body. That appears to be targeted fire towards the reporters, not a mistake from aiming elsewhere. There is simply no way the IDF would be deliberately aiming at the reporters as CNN and Bellingcat and AP believe - but I could not find a plausible alternative theory.

But thanks to Jon C., writing at Israellycool, there is not only a plausible theory - but a far better one.

He notes that there was another group of militants that were in the area at roughly the same time, to the southeast, as seen in this video taken facing north:

They were located in this tweet. Light blue is the position of the photographer, yellow is the direction they are walking, purple is where they are, red is where Abu Akleh was killed.

Ground-level photos of the area are not complete. The ones I have seen show a wall, one reason I didn't look closer at this yesterday, and also because I assumed that they would be firing towards the IDF convoy directly to their west - a very visible target. The audio analysis did not support that scenario.

However, that video is only a point in time. Further north, for example, there is an opening in the wall to the north and there are very possibly others. And sometimes there are holes in the walls of the area that can be used for firing positions.

Furthermore, we know from other video that at least some militants were firing from roofs. There are plenty of buildings there that could be used as a firing position, either from a roof or from windows. The video above, after all, was clearly made from an upper floor or a roof.

The point is that the area of the militants in this video are at the correct distance to fit the audio analysis.

Jon C. makes a very salient point:

I have been extremely curious about the possibility that Palestinian gunmen could have mistaken Abu Aqleh and her team for IDF soldiers. If they saw helmets just above the wall, from the side, through the brush, it could be easy to mistake them for soldiers.

We know that the militants from the south shouted out that an IDF soldier was down. They might have themselves seen Abu Akleh fall from the roof, but they might have also heard it from a cellphone or walkie talkie from the militants we are looking at.

From a distance of 170 meters, without a scope and in the heat of battle, it is very plausible that trigger happy Palestinians were shooting at anything that looked vaguely military - meaning reporters in flak jackets with helmets. And if they were convinced that they shot a soldier, then they would also want to shoot at anyone who went to help that downed soldier.

This is exactly what Palestinian terrorists would do. This is not what the IDF would do.

Also, I was bothered by the speed of the volleys of gunshots - that did not appear to fit the IDF pattern of one shot at a time. I couldn't figure out any alternative explanation. Palestinian terrorists with the same M16 guns, though, would squeeze off as many shots as they could. And this also explains the inaccuracy of the bullet holes in the tree next to Abu Akleh - a professional soldier from 200 meters away would not shoot so wildly.

B'Tselem had someone on the scene within hours to debunk the theory that they (falsely) claimed the IDF floated that the gunman in one video was actually shooting at Abu Akleh. But there are no NGOs or reporters who have gone on the scene in the past two weeks to look at evidence that Palestinians could have shot Abu Akleh, including from AP or CNN. They went to confirm their biased ideas, not to look objectively at the possibilities.

The firing patterns, timing, and evident aiming at helmeted figures by non-professionals fit this pattern better than what I had written. We are missing pieces of the puzzle - namely finding a line of sight from the southeast and then measuring exact distances - but this is a far better and more likely theory than my earlier thoughts that only the IDF was the appropriate distance away.

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