Leading military expert: " Israel has implemented more measures to prevent civilian casualties in urban warfare than any other military in history." ~ EoZ

Tuesday, January 30, 2024

Leading military expert: " Israel has implemented more measures to prevent civilian casualties in urban warfare than any other military in history."

John Spencer is recognized as one of the world's leading experts on urban warfare. One of his books, "Understanding Urban Warfare," is considered a leading source on the topic. He is the chair of Urban Warfare Studies with the Modern War Institute, United States Military Academy. He served twenty-five years in the U.S. Army as an infantry soldier and is a highly decorated combat veteran. Spencer is the host of the Urban Warfare Project podcast, in which he interviews fellow industry experts.

This thread he wrote yesterday is essential reading.

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In my opinion, Israel has implemented more measures to prevent civilian casualties in urban warfare than any other military in the history of war. This includes many measure the U.S. has (or has not) taken in wars and battles but also many measures no military in the world has ever taken.

Precautions during the initial air campaign to target enemy military capabilities to include using precision guided munitions and strict targeting protocols in both pre-planned and dynamic strikes against only military targets.

Use of precision guided munitions (PCMs): Despite the ignorance of reporting on ratios of PCMs to non-PCMs, Israel has used many types of PCMs to include lower collateral damage munitions/small diameter bombs and technologies and tactics that increase the accuracy of non-PCMs (dive bombing) limit civilian causalities (sat imagery, AI, cell phone presence)

The idea that a military must use more PCMs vs non-PCMs in a war is a myth. In the First Gulf War the U.S. fired 250,000 individual bombs and missiles in just 43 days. A small fraction of those would fit the definition of PCMs.

Also myths about choice of munitions and proportionality assessment/value of target/collateral damage estimate such as saying a 500 lbs bomb would achieve the same military task of a 2,000 lb. bomb with no mention of tunnels that would require greater penetration or availability of types/quantity of munitions.

Call/Text ahead of a strike with (at times) roof-knocking (no military has ever implemented in war). In some cases, IDF will call, text, drop small munitions on the roof of a building. While limited in the context of the strike it has been used in this war.

Provide warning and evacuate urban areas/cities before the full combined air and ground attack begins. While the tactic does alert the enemy defender and provide them the military advantage to prepare further, it is one of the best ways to prevent civilian casualties.

The U.S. did not do this in the invasion of Iraq or attack of Baghdad in 2003. Did not do this in the 2004 1st Battle of Fallujah but did do this in the Second Battle of Fallujah 6 months later because of the different context.

In the 2016-2017 Battle of Mosul, the Iraq government told the civilian to not evacuate and shelter in place during the battle for both Eastern and Western Mosul, but later changed instructions further into the battle.

Israel provided days and then weeks of warnings and time for civilians to evacuate multiple cities in northern Gaza before starting the main air-ground attack of urban areas.

Use of air dropped flyers to give instruction on evacuations and establishing evacuation corridors (U.S. implemented in 2nd Fallujah & assisted 2016-2017 Mosul). Israel dropped over 520,000 pamphlets, broadcasted over radio and through social media messages to provide instruction for civilians to leave combat areas using corridors.

Use of real phone calls (19,734) to civilians in the combat areas, SMS texts (64,399) and pre-recorded calls (almost 6 million) to civilians to provide instructions on evacuations. No military has never done this in urban warfare history.

Daily pauses for civilian evacuations. Israel conducted daily 4-hour pauses over multiple consecutive days. While pauses for civilian evacuations after a war or battle have started is not completely new but the frequency and predictability used in Gaza may have been historic.

The distribution of Israel military maps and urban warfare graphic (GRG - gridded reference graphic) to the civilians to assist with day to day evacuations, alerting civilians and enemy to where the IDF will be operating. No military in history has ever done this.

There is no modern comparison to Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. Israel is not fighting a battle: it is fighting a war.

No military in modern history has faced 30k defenders embedded in more than more than 7 cities, using human shields and hundreds of miles of underground networks purposely built under civilian sites while holding hundreds of hostages and launching over +12k rockets at the attacking military's civilians areas.

Again, Israel has implemented more measures to prevent civilian casualties than any other military in the history of war. While some have argued Israel could have waited longer, used different munitions, or not conducted the war at all - but these all fail to acknowledge the context of Israel’s war from the hostages, rockets, tunnels, existential threat of Hamas, and more, but also fail to recognize what Israel has done to prevent civilians casualties.

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I trust soldiers with real combat experience a lot more than I trust CNN or the New York Times to explain how wars can and should be waged. Soldiers also know the international laws of armed conflict far better than the "experts" at Human Rights Watch or Amnesty.

Critics of Israel's actions never offer any alternative that doesn't involve keeping Hamas functioning as a threat to Israel's population. That is the easiest way to know that they are not showing concern for civilians, but carrying water for Hamas jihadists.

Buy the EoZ book, PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism today at Amazon!