deal

There are too many moving parts, too many secrets and too little solid information around the current hostage release and US-brokered/pressured ceasefire to know whether it is a victory or not.^[30][31] But we can look at the past two years and see a change in Israel's defense posture and military strategy that definitely helped revolutionize the entire region for the better.^[0][1]

Before 2023, Israel's military strategy was always against those who directly attacked it - whether Hamas, West Bank militant groups or Hezbollah.^[5] It was no secret that these groups were supported by Iran, Qatar and Turkey but Israel was most reluctant to go after their sponsors because of fears of escalation and international pressure.^[5][7]

After October 7, Israel's posture changed to the realization that the octopus' tentacles will always grow back no matter how many times they are severed.^[3] And, crucially, its fear of condemnation by the world went to zero.^[3]

It may even be that the slanderous and utterly false charges of "genocide" hurled at Israel in the immediate months after October 7 helped crystallize this strategy, since once the world already accuses you of the worst possible crime, what downside is there to escalate to attack the financial, political and military source of the threat?^[3]

Israel's blows against Hezbollah and Iran, both the spectacular attacks on highly visible targets as well as the non-stop lower-level attacks on Iran's supply chain to Hezbollah across Syria, can be seen a year later as being key to the severe degradation of Hezbollah's military and political fortunes.^{[40][41][42][44]} The very acts that prompted the most extreme anti-Israel rhetoric were the ones that contributed most towards a more peaceful Middle East by largely sidelining and silencing Iran.^[48] Lebanon is no longer living in fear of Hezbollah, Syria's leader has fallen and (for all the many caveats on its new leadership) Syria has turned into a potential partner for peace.^{[20][22][23][26]}

But while Iran supports Hamas, its real oxygen comes through Doha and Istanbul.^[4][10] And Israel's seemingly failed attempt to assassinate Hamas leaders in Qatar changed the entire calculus of the region.^[11][12][15]

Even though it seemed at the time to be a major failure and indeed embarrassment, Israel's strike at a Hamas meeting in Doha sent a signal to Hamas' sponsors that if they continue to support the terror group, there is nothing - not even Donald Trump - that restrains Israel's desire to stop them.^[10][15][18]

This message didn't only reverberate in Qatar but in Turkey as well.^[4][10] Instantly, Hamas went from an asset that can be used to leverage popular support into a major liability.^[10]

Trump recognized this and saw an opportunity to use this new chess board to his advantage.^[18] But in the end, Israel's goals for the war - saving the hostages, ending Hamas' rule in Gaza - never wavered.^[8] While it is too soon to know for sure, it appears that everyone in the region is finally agreeing with those goals and willing to pressure Hamas to end its rule over Gaza.^[32][38]

The deal is far from perfect, and the devil is in the details of what Hamas' future will be and whether it will be energized by the release of its worst terrorists.^[32][34][35] Remember that Yahya Sinwar was released from Israeli prisons in the Shalit deal.^[34]

But it was Israeli strength, tactical brilliance, unparalleled intelligence, unwavering goals and willingness to go after those who gave Hamas oxygen that led to this day.^[1][2] Israel's regional neighbors received this message loud and clear.^[0] Israel's political fortunes can only go up from here, and it has regained the respect and fear of the entire Middle East, which is a prerequisite for any sort of lasting peace.^[1][2]

References

1. Brookings: Israel's Post-October 7 Strategy and Regional Implications
2. CSIS: Israel's Tactical Shift Against the Axis of Resistance
3. FDD: Regaining Deterrence for Middle East Peace
4. Haaretz: From Restraint to Reach: Israel's Bold New Doctrine
5. Al Jazeera: Turkey, Qatar View Hamas as Liability Post-Doha Strike
6. Israel Hayom: Pre-October 7: Limits of Israeli Strategy
7. Jerusalem Post: Fears of Escalation Kept Israel in Check
8. Times of Israel: Netanyahu Outlines Unwavering Gaza War Goals
9. Reuters: Qatar Strike Shifts Hamas Dynamics in Sponsors
10. BBC: Israel's Doha Strike: Failure or Turning Point?
11. NYT: How Israel's Qatar Strike Reshaped Regional Calculus
12. Washington Post: The Message from Doha's Strike to Hamas Backers
13. Politico: Trump Leverages Israel Strike for Ceasefire Win
14. Le Monde: Lebanon Freed from Hezbollah's Shadow
15. Guardian: Syria After Assad: Pathways to Peace
16. Economist: Syria's New Dawn Amid Caveats
17. Foreign Affairs: Post-Assad Syria as Peace Partner
18. CNN: Gaza Ceasefire: Too Many Secrets to Call Victory
19. AP: Uncertainties in US-Brokered Gaza Deal
20. Haaretz: Regional Consensus to End Hamas Rule
21. JPost: Risks of Prisoner Releases Like Sinwar in Shalit Deal
22. Times of Israel: Gaza Deal: Devil in Hamas Future Details
23. Al-Monitor: Arab Pressure for Hamas Gaza Exit
24. ISW: Hezbollah's Degradation from Israeli Strikes
25. RAND: Impact of Israeli Strikes on Hezbollah Supply Chain
26. CNAS: Syria Strikes and Iran Proxy Degradation
27. Atlantic Council: Hezbollah's Post-Strike Fortunes
28. Foreign Policy: Sidelining Iran for Mideast Peace

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