The most interesting thing to me about Israel's (alleged) strikes against Syria, including this week's, is Russia's role.
Israel has long held that it will enforce certain redlines in Syria, chiefly preventing high-end weapons shipments to Hizballah in Lebanon.That policy got more complicated with the arrival of Russian troops in Syria in 2015. Bibi hustled to Moscow, met Putin, sought understandings.
Several subsequent meetings have followed, and militry to military de-confliction channels were established to avoid unwanted clashes.
The Russians sometimes feign ignorance about the weapons shipments of concern to Israel. That's laughable, given Russia's intelligence capabilities. Most of the weapons are of Iranian origin, but sometimes Russian as well. The Russians are also known to cynically fish for others' intel: "We have no knowledge of what you speak, but please share what you know."
It's a tribute to deft Israeli diplomacy and military precision that so far Russia has not interfered with Israeli air operations. It's not as though they couldn't. Russia's reported deployment of the powerful S-400 air defense system in Syria gives them the ability to disrupt air traffic throughout Syria, Lebanon, and much of Israel itself. But they don't.
Israel is incredibly disciplined in how it conducts its operations, with its aircraft rarely penetrating Syrian airspace. But the question remains: is there a red line for Russia beyond which they will try to constrain Israeli operations?
Undoubtedly, the Iranians are urging Russia to draw such a line. Assad may as well. It is fascinating that so far Russia has resisted. Again, credit to the Israelis for managing a complex situation well, and playing on Putin's complex motivations.
A statement like Trump's (US has no interest in Syria besides killing ISIS) is not helpful to Israel, as it could indicate to Russia.that the US would not object to constraints placed on Israeli ops. I hope the Russians are getting a different message privately.
Friday, September 8, 2017
1:34 PM
Elder of Ziyon
No comments
Dan Shapiro, former US ambassador to Israel, has a smart Twitter take on the presumed Israeli airstrike against a Syrian chemical weapons facility this week. Here it is in a more readable form:
We have lots of ideas, but we need more resources to be even more effective. Please donate today to help get the message out and to help defend Israel.
Related Posts:
[Elder of Ziyon] The fundamental dishonesty of Judith ButlerJudith Butler, who has been in the news recently because of the controversy over her receiving the Adorno Prize, has also just released a book called "Parting Ways: Jewishness and the Critique of Zionism." The blurb describes… Read More
[Elder of Ziyon] Sunday linksFrom Ian: Netanyahu: Time for world to set 'clear red lines' for Iran PM says at cabinet meeting that sanctions hurting Iranian economy but not deterring Tehran's nuclear advance; decries lack of protest at "anti-Semi… Read More
[Elder of Ziyon] Arab admits poisoning family because he "hates Jews"From YNet: A Palestinian man residing in the West Bank village of Beit Furik, near Nablus, was arrested for allegedly poisoning a Raanana family and a police volunteer in October 2011. Adnan Othman Nasaara, 46, has repo… Read More
[Elder of Ziyon] Saturday night linksFrom Ian: Bolton to Israel: Attack, It's Your Right Former U.S. Ambassador to UN says Obama will not attack Iran, so Israel has to do it. "I blame not only Obama, but the [G. W.] Bush administration," he added. "Sancti… Read More
[Elder of Ziyon] Gaza power plant might shut down Thursday - from lack of maintenanceAnother Gaza power crisis is on the horizon, and again it has nothing to do with Israel. The head of Palestine Electricity Company, Walid Saad Sayel, warns that the Energy Authority owes millions for maintenance of the pow… Read More
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)