Explaining what is going on in Gaza (Abu Ali Express) ~ EoZ

Wednesday, September 20, 2023

Explaining what is going on in Gaza (Abu Ali Express)

Abu Ali Express has a great analysis of what has been happening in Gaza, translated by the (also great) Imshin.

If you are wondering why Hamas is sending youth to the Gaza fence now, and why Israel is closing the Erez crossing, this explains it.

Gaza Strip: The border conflict and the Qatari dollar - analysis of the situation

This afternoon, a significant piece of news was published in the Palestinian media that did not receive much exposure on the Israeli side: the Ministry of Finance of Hamas in Gaza announced that only 55% of August salaries will be paid to Gaza public sector officials instead of the usual 60%. Also, the August salary will be paid to officials on 20 September instead of at the customary beginning of the month.

"Palestine Now" news agency reported from its sources in the Hamas Ministry of Finance that the cut in the salaries of government officials in the Gaza Strip (hereafter "Hamas officials") is due to a decrease in the revenues of the treasury in Gaza, especially with regard to the revenues from the Egyptian side of Rafah crossing. According to these sources, the Finance Ministry of Hamas has a deficit of 116 million shekels.

On Tuesday, the Palestinian news agency in Ramallah, Sada News reported "shrill tones" between senior Hamas officials and Qatar, in connection with the Qatari ambassador's recent visit to the Gaza Strip, in which it was made clear that Qatar is not interested in continuing to transfer the Qatari contribution in its current form and that it intends to cut it and move to permanent solutions instead of Monthly payments.

Also, the Sada News news agency reported that about 3 months ago, Qatar suddenly stopped transferring the $7 million every month for Hamas officials (amounts that would have been transferred in the form of fuel through the Rafah crossing from the Egyptian side - this is probably what the "Palestine Now" report was alluding to).

The meeting between senior Hamas officials and the Qatari ambassador, according to the same agency, ended in an impasse and the ambassador left without any announcement being made on his or Hamas' side, as had been customary until now on his previous visits.

In other words: Hamas is now in the midst of negotiations for Qatari money. It is using the tools at its disposal to put pressure on Israel so that it will put pressure on Qatar (as it has in the past) to provide the money to Gaza.

Since the Qatari ambassador left the Strip, an escalation of the attacks on the fence in the Strip can be seen. Hamas wants dollars.

Last night Israel took the first punitive step following the escalation of events on the fence and closed the Erez crossing to the entry of Gazan laborers into Israel.

Hamas responded today with actions: the clashes on the fence continue.

Hamas, which absolutely directs the attacks on the fence and are in total control of the height of the flames, tells Israel that closing the crossing will not solve the situation. Nor will an IDF attack on observation towers in the eastern Gaza Strip 3 days ago in response to the escalation on the fence.

If you look at the situation logically, you can certainly understand the step Hamas is taking in its chess game. It is now negotiating for larger sums than its loss of income from a few days of closing Erez crossing to Gaza workers.

So what's next?

Israel has another "soft tool" at its disposal: preventing the export of goods from the Strip to Israel and the West Bank as well as preventing the entry of goods into the Strip.

Besides, it is a play for time.

Israel's two "soft tools": preventing laborers from entering Israel through the Erez crossing and the ability to close the movement of goods to and from the Gaza Strip, have more impact over time. They have a cumulative effect.

In the meantime, the situation on the border could escalate further and the killing of Gazans on the fence could lead to the launch of rockets and a military escalation on the part of Israel.

Both sides are in a game of chicken to see who blinks first. Hamas has succeeded in past rounds in proving that it has a better negotiating capacity with Israel because it is willing to go further, even at the expense of its own citizens. The Gazans are known for their particularly high adaptability to difficult situations...

Israel is more committed to the well-being of its citizens, and therefore, according to most, more susceptible to pressure in negotiations with Gaza. It can be assumed, based on past experience, that Israel will try to pressure Qatar to renew the Qatari contribution, in order to buy quiet in Gaza. Until next time...